About Prophet Markets

Prophet Markets is a play-money prediction market we run for the AI Forecasting Workshop at ICML 2026. You get fake cash and bet it on real questions: who wins a World Cup match, which paper takes Best Paper, that sort of thing. Nobody risks real money. What’s at stake is your standing in the room, plus a few prizes at the end.

You start with $100 in play money — another $100 if you scan the QR at the workshop. Each market is a question with a few possible answers, and you buy shares in whichever answer you believe in. If that answer turns out right, every share you hold earns you $1; if it’s wrong, it’s worth nothing. A share’s price is just the room’s guess at the odds — so you make money by buying answers you think are underpriced and selling once the room catches up. Your score is your cash plus whatever your open positions are worth right now.

One thing: please trade it yourself. We discourage bots — this one’s for humans to have fun with.