ICML 2026 · Seoul, South Korea
Rules & how it works
Prophet Markets is a prediction market for the AI Forecasting Workshop. You trade shares whose price is the room's live estimate of how likely something is. It's the wisdom of the room, priced in cents.
How trading works
A price is just a probability.
Each share costs between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price is simply the room’s estimate of the odds — 63¢ means the room thinks it’s about a 63% chance.
A correct share earns you $1.
Each market is a question; you buy shares in the answer you expect. When it’s decided, every share on the answer that actually happened cashes out for $1.00, and the rest are worth $0.00. So if you pay 40¢ for a share you believe is really 60% likely, you come out ahead when you’re right — buy below your honest estimate, sell above it.
Whole shares, penny prices.
You trade whole shares — one share earns you $1 if it wins. Prices move in 1¢ steps; no fractions.
How a trade happens.
You’re matched with other forecasters. Take the price showing right now, or name your own price and wait for someone to meet it. To get every market moving, the organizers seed each one with about $500.00 to start. Trading is free — no fees.
Trading stops before the event.
Each market locks before its event begins, so this stays about forecasting rather than frantic live-betting. A match closes at kickoff — not during the game — and the daily stock-index markets close before the next trading day, settling on the previous day’s closing price.
Bonuses
Two grants of virtual cash, so you can start forecasting immediately. Each is one-time per forecaster.
$100.00
Signup bonus
Granted when you create your account.
$100.00
QR workshop bonus
Scan an organizer's code at the venue and claim it on the spot.
Stack both for $200.00 of starting cash.
Leaderboard & prizes
Ranked by total value
Your standing is your cash plus the mark-to-market value of your open positions — every share valued at its current market price. Good forecasts compound; bad ones show up fast.
Top 5 take the podium.
The top 5 forecasters are recognized. Prizes, if any, are determined by the workshop organizers. Prize TBD
The clock that counts.
Rankings lock to portfolio value at Jul 11, 2026, 5:00 PM KST (5:00 PM KST, July 11, 2026). Trade right up to the bell.
How markets resolve
Best Paper — resolves 4:00 PM KST.
The Best Paper market is resolved by the organizers when the award is announced at Jul 11, 2026, 4:00 PM KST (4:00 PM KST). Winning shares pay $1.00, the rest expire worthless.
World Cup — resolved automatically.
World Cup markets settle automatically from the official sports results as matches conclude. No human in the loop, no debate — the scoreboard decides.
Every market lists its exact resolution rule and source on its own page, so you always know what you're forecasting.
The fine print
- Prophet Markets uses virtual money only.
- No real-money betting, gambling, deposits, withdrawals, or prizes based on real-money stake.
- Built for workshop engagement, education, and forecasting research.
- Leaderboard prizes, if any, are determined by workshop organizers.